A new Rabobank report has predicted a shift in the market, with growing levels of production and trade

A recent Rabobank report studying the global avocado business has predicted a shift in the market, anticipating an increase in both production and trade.

Hass Avocado Gen

The RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness report said that the industry was gearing up for further growth, with Latin America holding its position as the top exporter and the US continuing to be the primary importer.

”Despite a fragmented industry landscape in some regions, the market is moving toward consolidation, especially in South America, where competition and margin pressures are intensifying,” Rabobank outlined.

Production and exports

Global avocado exports were expected to surpass the 3m tonne milestone by 2025, the report said.

While Latin America would remain at the forefront, the export scene was diversifying, with Mexico, Peru, and Colombia standing as the largest avocado exporters according to the projections.

Brazil, Ecuador, and other countries were emerging as exporters, Rabobank said.

The fast growth of the European avocado market had spurred increased production in the EU, mainly in Spain, the researcher continued. However, water availability remained a ”significant factor” limiting large-scale expansion of avocado production and further area expansion was not expected for European production.

Africa was witnessing steady growth, the group confirmed, with Kenya maintaining its upward trajectory and Morocco’s exports ”burgeoning” as its trees matured.

To stay ahead, Rabobank urged industry players  to innovate amid a ”competitive and challenging supply environment”.

US sets import records

The US’ appetite for avocados kept growing, it commented, setting import records at 1.26m tonnes in 2023, an 11 per cent increase year-on-year.

Mexico remained the country’s primary supplier, with a “staggering” 90 per cent share of imports.

Europe’s consumption patterns had evolved, with a projected increase in avocado purchases for 2024/25 – assuming stable supply conditions – while its reliance on imports was set to grow given its “low self-sufficiency rate”.

“Opportunities abound in Asia and Latin America, with untapped markets poised for growth,” explained David Magaña, senior analyst – fresh produce at Rabobank.

“South American countries, in particular, are ripe for increased consumption, pending promotional and marketing initiatives,” he outlined. “Asia’s imports have surged by 29 per cent year-on-year in 2023, with China leading the way.

“While Hass avocados will continue to dominate, Hass-like varieties will gradually gain ground, particularly those with higher yield potential,” Magaña added.

“The industry faces price pressures as global production volumes rise, with quality and size being pivotal in the American and European markets.”

South America’s industry was consolidating, the report said, with large-scale companies increasingly dominating the landscape.

This trend was expected to continue as the market responded to competition, margin pressures, and demand for year-round supply.