Italy’s output to remain stable, but Poland, Germany, Belgium and Netherlands all sest for double-digit falls
The 2026/27 European Union apple crop is expected to reach almost 9.5mn tonnes according to preliminary forecasts from the World Apple & Pear Association (Wapa). This is 15.6 per cent down on last year’s final figure and the second-smallest harvest of the past ten years.
The association cited an increasingly complex production environment and extreme weather – including flooding in southern Europe, late frosts, and the ongoing drought – as the main reasons for the drop.
Presenting the figures at today’s Prognosfruit in Constance, Germany, Philippe Binard, secretary-general of Wapa, commented: “We have seen flooding in southern Europe, late frosts, and now clear signs of persistent drought. All these factors have impacted this year’s harvest”.
Poland – Europe’s biggest apple producer – has a forecast crop of 2.6mn tonnes, representing a 30 per cent decrease on the previous season.
Italy’s production remains largely stable, while Germany is down about 10 per cent compared to last year; France is down 24 per cent, Belgium 25 per cent, and the Netherlands 17 per cent.
Overall, Wapa said it expects predominantly smaller fruit sizes – with variations between countries – though this situation may evolve over the coming weeks.
“This year’s figures are a strong reminder that production cannot be taken for granted,” Binard stated. “We may be reaching the limits of what current tools and practices can absorb for the competitiveness of the sector, with production and yields impacted by climate events, rising costs and shrinking toolbox to secure yields and quality.”
Luc Vanoirbeek,chair of the Copa-Cogeca Working Party on Fruit and Vegetables added: “Political support has not kept pace with the speed at which climate change is affecting our orchards, and other growers are facing increasing constraints to respond. This is not just a question of yield; it’s a question of competitiveness, and ultimately of food security.
“Food sovereignty in Europe demands giving growers the conditions they need to produce, including stronger incentives and a framework for reinforcing cooperation among growers to respond to the proliferation of challenges within an uncertain political, geopolitical, climate and market landscape”.
Regarding the main varieties, Golden Delicious production is set to contract by 11.1 per cent to 1.81mn tonnes. Gala, the second-largest variety, is also expected to decrease by 8.9 per cent to 1.36mn tonnes, along with Red Delicious (down 5.3 per cent to 496,500 tonnes) and Idared (down 19.7 per cent to 415,559 tonnes).
Organic apple production is set to fall by 13 per cent, with Italy, Germany, and France remaining the leading producing countries.
The volume of apples destined for processing, meanwhile, is projected to drop 25 per cent drop to approximately 2.8mn tonnes, although quality and fruit size could still influence the final volumes.
The EU pear crop for 2026 is estimated to grow by 5.5 per cent compared to last year, with a forecast just short of 1.95mn tonnes This is 9.9 per cent above the three-year average but remains below the orchard potential.
Italy’s pear production is expected to increase by 17.4 per cent to 347,325 tonnes, while the Dutch estimates are 9.6 per cent higher than last season. Belgium’s pear forecast, by contrast, is 7.2 per cent below the 2025/26 season.
Wapa also presented a final balance of the 2025/26 season, in which production reached 11.254mn tonnes. This was 7.64 per cent up on 2024/25 and around 7.7 per cent higher than the original forecast of 10,455 tonnes.
Planted area fell to its lowest level in ten years last year to 456,000ha, down from 523,000ha in 2015.
Looking ahead to next season, Binard commented: “Looking at trends over the past 30 years, a pattern emerges: roughly every ten years, there is a significant drop in production to around 9mn tonnes”.
He noted that “interestingly, such poor harvest years have frequently been followed by a marked recovery in the past. We shall see if this pattern repeats itself this time”.
