Central Reserve Bank of Peru report predicts weather phenomenon will have limited impact on fruit crops
Peruvian authorities predict a limited impact on agriculture from what is expected to be a relatively weak El Niño in 2026. Nevertheless, they warn that the weather phenomenon could last longer than usual.
The Multisector Commission of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (Enfen) recently issued a Coastal El Niño Alert, noting that it could last until December. While its magnitude is classified as a weak for now, Enfen did not rule out that it could reach a moderate magnitude in autumn.
According to the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), El Niño is projected to cause a 0.1 per cent contraction in GDP this year, significantly less than the 1.1 per cent fall registered during the previous El Niño in 2023 which was registered as strong.
Nevertheless, it warned that the agricultural sector would face some consequences. For example, the warmer conditions are set to reduce yields on fruit trees, which require a certain number of cold hours in their flowering phase.
BCRP’s president, Julio Velarde, told Gestión: “El Niño will affect the entire coastal region, especially the northern coast (Tumbes, Piura, Lambayeque, and La Libertad). The Enfen forecast would imply a slight alteration of both agricultural activity (volume and production calendars), and livestock (performance of poultry meat and egg production),” he said.
Many of the country’s big producers have developed techniques to mitigate climate risks, due to previous experiences associated with El Niño Costero. In blueberries, for example, there has been a marked shift towards new varieties that are better adapted to warm conditions.
Highlighting the crops that are likely to be most exposed to El Niño, BCRP said warmer conditions in August could hit lime production in the second half of the year, when around 40 per cent of the annual crop is harvested. Similarly, mango and grape production could be affected by warm conditions in the middle of the year.
BCRP also warned that other fruit trees such as organic bananas could be affected by flooding. Blueberries during September-October would not necessarily be affected by a weak El Niño, as it will depend on the management of their pruning.
