Worse-than-expected results last season cast shadow over new campaign
Doubts surrounding prices and market demand have led to an uncertain start to the 2026/27 orange season for Brazilian producers, according to Cepea, the Centre for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics.
It said that contract negotiations will likely not advance until May, when the official crop forecast is published by Fundecitrus.
The uncertainty stems from the results of last season, in which official data shows that 292.94mn (40.8kg) cartons were harvested. This represents a 26.9 per cent increase on the previous season but was 6.9 per cent short of initial forecasts.
The worse than expected performance was due to a water shortage and the impact of citrus greening. In the main citrus producing belt, the accumulated rainfall between May 2025 and March 2026 was 1,135mm – around 13 per cent below the historical average.
According to Cepea, higher-than-expected fruit drop rate of 23.2 per cent, resulting in an estimated loss of 88.49mn cartons. Of this total, 49.59mn cartons were attributed to citrus greening, which remains the main factor affecting orchard productivity.
Furthermore, the season was marked by a later harvest and a greater proportion of second-flowering fruits, especially in varieties destined for processing. This increased exposure to pests and adverse weather conditions, reducing yield and affecting the quality of the raw material.
For the 2026/27 harvest, production is expected to remain stable or decrease slightly. Once again, a greater concentration of the harvest is anticipated in the second flowering period, leading to uncertainty about the pace of supply throughout the season.
Looking ahead to market expectations, Brazil begins the new season with comfortable stock levels and difficulties in distribution, especially to Europe, one of its main export destinations. Questions remain as to how much new season fruit the market can absorb.
Brazil is the world’s leading orange producer, accounting for 32.8 per cent of global output and around 62 per cent of worldwide juice production. Most of its 800,000ha of production is concentrated in the São Paulo-Minas Gerais axis, with a significant presence in northeastern states.
