Despite the lower forecast, the industry remains optimistic about long-term growth as competing nations face their own challenges
The South African raisin industry has revised its 2025/26 forecast downwards after crop disease and bad weather hit production.
Industry body Raisins South Africa now expects production for the season to reach 86,500 tonnes, a 14 per cent reduction on the 100,495 tonnes previously forecast.
The decline has been attributed to downy mildew pressure and localised hail damage in certain production areas during the season.
The Northern Cape produces the lion’s share of the crop, with 66,442 tonnes expected.
The Western Cape is forecasting 15,058 tonnes, and Namibia 2,000 tonnes.
Despite the slight setback, the long-term picture remains extremely positive for the fast-growing South African raisin industry, the industry body noted.
Output topped 100,000 tonnes for the 2025 marketing season, and the industry’s goal is to surpass the 150,00-tonne landmark in the coming years.
“South African farmers’ tenacity to keep going and overcome challenges has been crucial to the sustained increase in production over many years,” said Wessel Lemmer, chief executive of Raisins SA.
“With other leading exporters experiencing subdued production, and thanks to South African product having very low residue levels and top quality, we expect our crop to continue to be in high demand.”
According to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC), leading export nation Turkey has had a difficult time in the past year, with international raisin shipments declining 31 per cent between September 2024 and February 2025.
China also suffered weather-related production challenges in 2024/25, leading to a smaller crop and lower quality.
By contrast, prior to the latest update South Africa has enjoyed stable weather and excellent drying conditions, with INC figures showing that the total tonnage of raisins exported increased 40 per cent to 77,991 tonnes last year.
South Africa is currently the world’s sixth-largest producer of raisins, sultanas and currants, and the largest in the Southern Hemisphere.
The UK market remains a priority for South African exporters, according to Raisins SA.
“We are seeing strong demand across both new and traditional markets, and look forward to offering our customers the full range of high-quality products over the coming months,” Lemmer concluded.
