AFBF study says imports are increasingly filling the gap left by shrinking local production in the face of mounting economic pressures
The growing overlap between US fruit and vegetable production seasons and imports is putting downward price pressure and narrowing windows for domestic producers according to analysis by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF).
It shows that the US is undergoing a radical transformation in its fresh fruit supply, with an increasing reliance on overseas suppliers. Since 2010, import volumes have risen by nearly 69 per cent, while domestic production has fallen by 32 per cent. Data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that imports accounted for 59 per cent of fresh fruit sales in the US in 2023, up from 50 per cent in 2007.
According to the AFBF, this shift is strongly linked to rising costs and the difficulties US producers face in maintaining competitive margins. It said imports are increasingly filling the gap left by shrinking local production in the face of mounting economic pressures.
The situation is particularly acute for highly perishable products like berries which have short harvest windows and cannot be stored for extended periods while waiting for better prices.
The AFBF highlights the growing phenomenon of “market window creep” – when imported fruit begins entering the US market earlier or remains there longer, overlapping with local production seasons.
This hits domestic growers as the opening and closing weeks of a season are often precisely when they can command higher prices, helping to sustain the profitability of the production cycle.
The AFBF noted that even a few weeks of additional supply can have a major impact on the prices of highly perishable fruits and vegetables. It said products like blueberries, strawberries, tomatoes and watermelons have been particularly impacted by the growing encroachment of imports on the US production season.
The analysis itself underscores that international trade remains essential for ensuring year-round availability and maintaining integrated supply chains. Nevertheless, it acknowledges that rising imports during periods of domestic production are raising concerns among farmers regarding the impact on prices and profitability.
In addition to eroding the profitability of domestic crops, the AFBF warned that America’s growing reliance on imports could leave the US more exposed to international disruptions caused by extreme weather events, political instability, sanitary issues, trade restrictions, or regulatory changes.
Rather than calling for a reduction in foreign trade, the AFBF said a balance needed to be struck between maintaining a stable supply for consumers and ensuring that US farmers can compete profitably.
