Global avocado supplies continue to increase, leading many to predict imminent issues of oversupply, but a panel of UK experts at this year’s Festival of Fresh conference see more room for growth
Despite warnings in recent years about potential avocado oversupply, key figures in the UK industry remain bullish, as the market continues to absorb growth.
“Avocado consumption has doubled in the last decade,” said Steve Maxwell of Worldwide Fruit at the Festival of Fresh conference in Spalding. “There were concerns about too much supply, but that’s never happened. There’s still an imbalance, especially at the shoulders of the season, but all the metrics – penetration, frequency – are up. We think there’s still real growth ahead.”
One reason is the product’s popularity with young people. “It’s not just hipsters and Gen Z,” said Maxwell. “It’s one of the few products that overperforms in younger demographics, so they’ll come with us. We’ve got options and opportunities everywhere.”
And with improved supply chain infrastructure and better fruit arriving from key origins like Peru and Colombia, quality is keeping up with the hype.
“We’re seeing much more consistent fruit coming into our facilities,” Maxwell continued. “Higher oil levels, better ripening. It’s a delicate product, but we’re now delivering fruit that tastes better than it did ten years ago – and lasts longer.”
Consistency is also aided by the UK’s highly programmed retail model. “You don’t see much on-spec fruit coming in anymore,” he said. “Weekly planning means fresher fruit, which translates directly to a better consumer experience.”
Peru leads, but volatility remains
While Peru remains a key source, challenges remain, chief among them climate-related volatility. “We never have a season where we don’t talk about some climatic effect,” said Rob Davies of Paddock Wood. “This year, Peru’s looking at 650,000 tonnes, and 18 per cent of that’s heading to the US. That’s a watch-out for the UK and Europe.”
Still, Davies sees the market adapting well. “Every time we think it might struggle to absorb the growth, it doesn’t,” he said. “The pricing gets tricky mid-season when volumes bunch, but demand keeps soaking it up.”
Graham Young of Westfalia noted that Peru’s rapid rise in avocados follows similar export successes with asparagus and blueberries. “They’re now the second largest producer in the world,” he said, “and projections suggest another 100,000 tonnes a year coming in the next five or six years.”
Westfalia has helped Peru break into Asia. “We now have over 50 per cent of the Asian avocado market,” he said. “It’s still small, but it’s growing. For Peru, diversification is the right strategy.”
Young also pointed to the importance of embracing the diverse uses of avocados. “To do the category justice, we need to use the whole fruit – skin, stone, downgraded avocados,” he said. “That means getting into guacamole, smashed avocado, cosmetics and oil.”
Colombia has been the breakout success story of the last decade, said Davies. But looking ahead, he sees East Africa – particularly the likes of Kenya and Tanzania – as the next big players in avocados. “Kenya’s now the fourth largest exporter of Hass globally,” he said. “It’s professionalising fast. And Morocco, especially for winter supply, has great potential too.”
