India’s apple importers are wondering whether they will source enough affordable fruit to meet demand this coming season, as a ban on Chinese product and limited European volumes look set to restrict supplies.
Chinese varieties accounted for 65 per cent of India’s apple imports last season, yet they remain banned since June due to recurrent pest interceptions.
Meanwhile, Europe – another key apple supply country – suffered widespread spring frosts and expects its crop to be 20 per cent down on the prior year.
Compounding the issue, US Washington apple volumes are lower than last season, meaning exporters will be under less pressure to supply the Indian market.
The upshot, say key traders, is likely to be higher apple prices in what is a very price-sensitive market.
“In my opinion it will be a tough year as there will be higher expectations for Indian consumer to pay higher prices, when Indian consumers are very price sensitive,” Tarun Arora, director of fruit distributor IG International, tells Fruitnet. “Only time will tell how this season turns out.”
Several importers say domestic apples, which are having some production problems of their own, will nevertheless go a long way in filling the supply gap left by India’s Chinese embargo.
Others expect Turkey and Iran, despite some quality and logistical challenges, to “take up the slack” left by China in the early part of the season. Meanwhile, many believe Washington has a clear market advantage and will enjoy “a stellar year” in India.
The sudden lifting of the Chinese apple ban could turn the current import situation on its head, however.
“The risks anticipated to the ban being lifted are higher volumes arriving from China in a short turn-around time at cheaper prices, which in turn can pose extremely high risks to large volumes exported from other countries with longer turn-around times,” says Arora.
Northern Hemisphere apple arrivals typically start coming on-stream in October and November, but don’t gain momentum until February once the domestic apple crop has had a good crack at the market.
India’s apple imports leapt to unprecedented levels last season with some traders citing 2016/17 volumes as high as 250,000-300,000 tonnes.
Demand for European, US and Chinese apples in India has steadily risen in recent years –some say by 20 per cent annually – as middle-class incomes have increased and consumers become more health conscious. Better market penetration (thanks to a larger supermarket network), delivering better quality and all-round eating experience, has also helped boost the category, pundits say.
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