Bioclimatology expert argues that the industry has a unique opportunity to reposition itself, provided bold and coordinated action is taken
A leading climate change expert has called for the development of a comprehensive national strategy to address the impact climate change is having on Chile’s fruit industry, Frutas de Chile reports.
Speaking at the recently held First International Fruit Meeting in La Araucanía, organised by Visión and AcciónFruit, professor Fernando Santibáñez highlighted current threats, future challenges, and opportunities for technological and territorial adaptation.
Santibáñez, a professor at the University of Chile and a member of the Ministry of Agriculture’s Climate Change Council, said growers are facing a warmer, more arid and unstable climate, which is making fruit production increasingly difficult in some areas but could represent an opportunity for parts of the south of the country.
He pointed out that global warming is already altering the Chilean agricultural landscape. “We have risen 1.1°C on average, and soil pressure has dropped between 15 and 25 per cent. Evaporation rates have increased by 10 per cent, and relative humidity has dropped by 8 per cent,” he said, adding that wind speeds have increased by 15 per cent and there had been an extension of the hours of high temperatures, which directly affect crops.
Rainfall, meanwhile, also on a downward trend. “If in the 1960s the average rainfall was 800mm per year, today it’s significantly lower,” Santibáñez said. However, his long-term projection suggests that this trend will stabilise around 2050, at which point it could gradually recover.
New productive frontiers
Far from being just a chronicle of disasters, Santibáñez’s analysis also identified opportunities for fruit growers, particularly in the south of the country, noting that “Southern Chile is becoming increasingly suitable for fruit crops that were previously unviable for climatic reasons”.
Concrete examples include regions such as La Araucanía and Los Ríos that could reach temperatures currently seen in Quillota in the future, opening up new productive frontiers for crops such as apples, cherries, and walnuts.
Santibáñez acknowledged, however, that this would pose a challenge in terms of infrastructure, planning, and productive reconversion. “It is time to create conditions for real agricultural diversification toward the south, which requires public policies, private investment, and a key role for the state in technology transfer,” he said.
2025: less rainfall, but no cause for alarm
Regarding the current season, Santibáñez projects a rainfall deficit of close to 30 per cent. He noted that it won’t be the driest year in history, but it will require special care in water resource management, especially in the north-central region.
“The intense but infrequent rains don’t translate into useful water for plants. In the south, for example, it’s raining more, but that water is lost through runoff,” he said.
The behaviour of the South Pacific anticyclone will also influence upcoming rainfall patterns. If this high-pressure system continues to block rainy fronts, the drought will persist. If it occasionally recedes, brief water windows could open.
Santibáñez highlighted that Chile still has comparative advantages when it comes to fruit production. Its geography and the Humboldt Current have allowed it to withstand the extremes of global warming. However, he warned that this resilience would not last forever. “The oceans are no longer absorbing as much heat as before. This is accelerating warming, and our agriculture can’t stand still,” he said.
In this context, irrigation technology, solar radiation management, the search for more resistant varieties, and the migration of crops to new areas would become unavoidable. Cherry, apple and hazelnut trees, for example, require cold winters for proper development. If this dormancy is interrupted by increasingly frequent winter heat waves, their yield can decline drastically.
Call for action
Santibáñez pointed out that adapting existing agricultural techniques is not enough, and that a comprehensive national strategy is needed to address the challenges posed by climate change. “Technological solutions must go hand in hand with public policies, investment incentives, and strengthening local capacities,” he said. “If we don’t do this, we will lose the opportunity to consolidate Chile as an agricultural export powerhouse in an increasingly food-insecure world.”
For Santibáñez, the message is clear: Chilean fruit growing has a unique opportunity to reposition itself, as long as bold and coordinated decisions are made.
