An official forecast released today by peak body Pipfruit New Zealand has pegged the country’s 2010 apple and pear crop 15 per cent lower than 2009, largely the result of a cold spring peppered with hail.
The total apple and pear output is expected to be between 261,000 tonnes and 266,000 tonnes.
New Zealand’s Braeburn variety was leading the fall with a year-on-year decline of 26-33 per cent to 68,000-72,000 tonnes, from 2009’s 97,000 tonnes.
Royal Gala is expected to drop 15 per cent to 92,000 tonnes from last year’s 108,000 tonnes. The early Pacific Rose variety is also down 22 per cent, and Fuji production is pegged for a 10 per cent fall.
Bucking the trend is Jazz, now the third largest variety in New Zealand by production after edging out Fuji in this year’s forecast, rising 28 per cent to 25,000 tonnes.
The dominance of Royal Gala and Braeburn in the country’s production is mix has continued to erode; for the first time in 18 years, the two varieties constitute less than 60 per cent of forecast volume and less than 50 per cent of planted area.
Pear volumes are forecast to fall 11 per cent.
One of the leading causes of this season’s lower volume was a brace of hail storms in New Zealand’s Hawke’s Bay region at the end of October last year, which set back early apple varieties such as Braeburn, Royal Gala and Pacific Rose.
“We had hail and a cold spring, and it’s also been very wet which means disease pressure,” Pipfruit NZ chief executive Peter Beaven told Fruitnet.com. “It was a variety of factors.”
The dent in early fruit means the season’s sizing profile will be smaller, and packout rates are likely to fall slightly. But Mr Beaven said there was no reason to expect quality would be lowered.
Industry sources told Fruitnet.com marketing the new season to Europe is likely to be similarly difficult to last year, despite the slight recovery in economic situations, although Mr Beaven said the lower crop volume could be a blessing in disguise.
“In some ways you could argue the weather has done us a favour, because we all know the European markets will be somewhat difficult,” he stated.
“They have had an overall increase in some of the varieties we traditionally supply to Europe. Current storage levels for varieties like Braeburn are higher, but how that will move through the market remains to be seen.
“Given the difficulties we’ve had with Braeburn in Europe in the past few years, we need to manage very carefully the volume we send there. That will be easier this year because of the lower volume.”
The market in North America is looking more positive, according to Mr Beaven, who said Braeburn stocks are currently 20 per cent lower than this time last year, and are moving quite fast.
In Asia, the last several years has seen significant growth to China, Dubai and India in particular, with growth in those markets expected to continue on the back of New Zealand-bred varieties like the Pacific Series and Enza’s Envy variety, which is being specifically targeted at Asian palates.
Japan, however, still appears to be beyond reach for New Zealand’s exporters, despite trial shipments being sent to the market last season.
A difficult quarantine protocol is the main hurdle, according to Alex Schenz of exporter Applemax.
“The present protocols are jeopardising the arrival of high quality fruit,” he told Fruitnet.com. “It’s a market that demands quality, and New Zealand fruit would be ideal, but the current protocols are having a heavy impact on arrival quality and costs.”
Mr Beaven said New Zealand needs to negotiate either a better protocol or a treatment to replace the current metal bromide requirement. He suggested New Zealand could work together with the US, which is subject to a similar protocol.
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