The supply chain must learn to operate amid uncertainty, says Stefano Iorini of Global Star Group, focusing on “resilience, flexibility and alignment”
Stefano Iorini of Saudi Arabia-based Global Star Group has recognised the need for a shift in focus in response to the current logistical chaos in the Gulf, “from efficiency to resilience, flexibility and alignment”.
“Something fundamental has changed,” he posted on LinkedIn. “And most of us are still operating as if it hasn’t.”
For the time being, he suggested, reliable supply chains that allow for accurate forecasting of transit times and costs, and the planning of seasonal programmes, were gone.
“The illusion of stability has been exposed,” he said. “Transit from South Africa to the Gulf has moved from 16-21 days to up to 55 days, often via longer routes into Jeddah. Freight has increased from US$4,000 to US$12,000 per container, with war-risk surcharges up to US4,000. Similarly, from all other origins.”
Most shipments, he revealed, had been delayed or rerouted via Salalah, Khorfakkan or Fujairah. “Transit times are not just longer; they are uncertain,” he added. “Quality is inevitably affected, with products now spending 60-80 days in transit. This is no longer just a logistics issue. It is a market shift.”
Consumption is down as a result of price increases, while payment cycles are growing longer as cashflow across the chain is disrupted.
“What this creates is a structural imbalance,” Iorini said. “Volumes do not match planning; arrival timings are inconsistent; costs evolve rapidly; quality is less controllable. The traditional model based on fixed programmes is becoming difficult to sustain.”
What was needed, he said, was more adaptive programmes with stronger coordination across the supply chain, a greater role for regional hubs like Saudi Arabia and a more balanced distribution of risk.
“Planning assumptions that held for decades can no longer be taken for granted,” he concluded. “The question is not how to optimise, but how to operate within uncertainty. How do we ensure the pressure is shared sustainably across the chain? In times like these, strength is measured not by efficiency, but by alignment.”
