USDA forecasts higher apple, pear and grape shipments as Asian market opportunities continue to open
South African exports of apples, pears and table grapes are predicted to increase in 2026/27 as more export-quality fruit becomes available, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
The agency said the country’s apple exports were expected to rise 4 per cent to 780,000 tonnes, while pear shipments would increase 3 per cent to 270,000 tonnes and table grape exports would be up 1 per cent to 358,000 tonnes.
Apple production is forecast to rebound 7 per cent to 1.35mn tonnes, as higher-yielding varieties and younger trees enter production.
According to FAS, shipments to China are likely to increase after the country removed its 10 per cent tariff on South African apples at the beginning of May.
That trade was already 52 per cent higher year on year during January-August 2026, it noted, while shipments to India increased by the exact same percentage – despite South African apples facing a 50 per cent tariff in that market.
The UK and EU also remain major destinations, with South Africa benefiting from duty-free access to both markets.
Mixed fortunes for pears and grapes
As for pears, production is forecast to increase 2 per cent to 540,000 tonnes, supporting a 3 per cent recovery in exports following lower shipments in 2025/26.
South Africa was the EU’s leading pear supplier in 2024/25, accounting for 43 per cent of imports. Alongside the EU, its principal markets for pears were Russia, UAE, India and the UK.
Table grape production, meanwhile, is forecast to decline 3 per cent from the previous season’s record to 380,000 tonnes, although exports are expected to edge higher as more export-quality grapes become available and new markets open.
With the EU accounting for 66 per cent of grape exports in 2025/26, FAS noted that South Africa had made its first table grape shipments to the Philippines, and expected volumes to increase, while exporters are preparing for their first consignments to South Korea after gaining market access this year.
However, FAS cautioned that widely reported port delays in Cape Town remained a concern after weather disruption and lower throughput affected exports during the most recent campaign.
It also said shipments to the US were likely to remain low because South African deciduous fruit faced a 12.5 per cent US import duty, and that table grape exports to the market had fallen 84 per cent in 2025/26.
