Citrus Growers Association revises season forecast downward across all categories as campaign progresses
South Africa’s citrus export deal will be slightly smaller than originally forecast at the start of the season, according to new figures issued by the Citrus Growers Association.
The news will be welcomed by those who feared more extensive damage to the industry following major floods across the country in late May.
According to local reports, floodwaters inundated some orchards in the Eastern Cape and wiped out entire production blocks.
However, while there have also been reports of disruption to packing and logistics, CGA’s numbers suggest the overall impact on citrus exports will be minor.
In a monthly update published by CEO Boitshoko Ntshabele, the group said total shipped volumes were expected to be 207.4mn cartons (15kg) by the end of the campaign, down from an initial estimate of 209.4mn cartons.
New revised carton forecasts for individual product categories include 17.7mn for grapefruit (down from 17.8mn), 45.8mn for lemons (45.9mn), 51.8mn for mandarins (52.7mn), 29.2mn for Navel oranges (30mn), and 62.9mn for Valencia oranges (63mn).
As of week 21, the country had reportedly shipped 8.6mn cartons of grapefruit, 22.1mn cartons of lemons, 13.4mn cartons of mandarins, and 3.5mn cartons of Navels, with shipments of Valencias yet to begin.
Ntshabele also provided some additional information regarding this year’s grapefruit exports.
“The weekly table captures total packed volumes across the variety group,” he commented. “This includes processing grade fruit. For instance, this week’s figures actually break down as follows: Class 1 and 2 amount to 7.2mn cartons, while processing grade accounts for 1.4mn cartons.
“By comparison, last season Class 1 and 2 amounted to 7.8mn cartons, and processing grade totaled 800,000 cartons. This aligns with the expectations at this stage of the season.”
