Lemons are expected to be in short supply globally this year, as most major suppliers struggle for volumes and the effects of Turkey’s disastrous frost continue to be felt
Turkey’s lemon sector is facing one of its toughest seasons in recent memory, as spring frosts hit production and high inflation pushes costs up.
Ayşe Özler of Turkish exporter Özler Ziraat painted a bleak picture of the current campaign. “Everyone is pessimistic,” she told Fruitnet. “It’s been devastating news across the board.”
Unusually late spring frosts wiped out much of Turkey’s summer crops, decimating key fruit categories. “There are no cherries, no stonefruit this year,” said Özler. No grapes, no apricots, which means no dried apricots for next year. The prices of dried apricots are already going up.”
Those same weather events have also taken a toll on citrus. “We’re expecting low volumes of oranges and grapefruits,” she explained. “Mandarins are not so bad, but lemon volumes are really lacking. We should have lemons right now, but there are no early lemons in Turkey this year.”
Overall, Özler estimated a drop of 60 per cent in early lemons from Turkey this season, while late lemons are likely to be down by 30-40 per cent. This shortfall in volumes comes at a difficult time financially for many growers, with soaring inflation and high interest rates exacerbating the challenge.
“Costs have been up since last year,” Özler said. “Low yields just add an extra layer of cost. It would have been challenging anyway, but with yields down it’s really bad.”
As a result, lemon prices are on the rise and expected to continue climbing. “There are going to be few lemons this year and they’ll be expensive,” she warned. “From September to November, supplies will be very short.”
Other origins are struggling too, offering little relief to buyers. South Africa and Argentina are expected to finish early due to smaller crops, while Spanish lemon volumes could be down by 30 per cent. Chinese lemons also suffered the effects of springtime frosts, with volumes down as a result.
“China has been the big supplier for Asia in recent years,” said Özler. “So until Egypt arrives in November, there won’t be many volumes available.”
This offers the potential for sales in a market that has recently escaped the clutches of Turkish exporters. “Turkish citrus lost its window in Asia because South Africa, China and Egypt filled the whole supply period,” said Özler. “It’s not a regular market for Turkish lemons now. Our own orchard yields are not bad this season, so there could be an opportunity, but we’re still facing problems transporting to Asia via the Red Sea. The 50 to 60 days of transit are too long and always involve a shelf-life risk, so it doesn’t make much sense.”
Instead, the company is focusing on closer markets. “We have strong demand in markets that are just days away in Europe, or two weeks away in the Middle East,” she explained. “Supply is limited and demand is high, so in the end it will be whoever pays the best price that gets the product.”
