Retail sales have risen ahead of the key trading period over Easter, but analysts predict shoppers will cut back when faced with rising prices
Take-home sales at the grocers increased by 4.4 per cent in the four weeks to 22 March despite growing financial anxiety due to the Middle East conflict.
Meanwhile the rate of like-for-like grocery inflation held steady at 4.3 per cent, according to the latest data from Worldpanel by Numerator.
“Financial anxiety among British consumers was already running high before the conflict began,” said head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel by Numerator, Fraser McKevitt.
“And with grocery inflation likely to increase and fuel costs rising sharply, the conditions that make shoppers feel vulnerable are only intensifying.
“Shoppers will look to lessen the impact on their baskets when faced with rising prices, and while there remains a level of uncertainty, we are watching the data closely for behavioural changes like trading down and switching which often emerge during periods of economic pressure.”
Online and premium retail continues to grow
Online only retailer Ocado grew sales by 12.3 per cent over the 12 weeks ending 22 March, now accounting for 2.2 per cent of the market.
Grocery sales at M&S increased by 9.5 per cent over the same period, the fastest since June last year, while at Waitrose, higher than average spending per trip drove 5.8 per cent sales growth, the fastest rate of growth in five years.
Lidl increased market share by 0.5 percentage points, more than any other retailer, with sales up by 9.6 per cent year-on-year.
Sainsburys attracted the most new shoppers, with 387,000 more customers than in the same 12 weeks a year ago.
Tesco sales were up by five per cent, while sales at both Aldi and Morrisons increased by 2.3 per cent.
Asda sales dipped by 0.9 per cent, the best performance for the retailer since April 2024.
