USDA forecasts higher Canadian apple and table grape imports, while smaller US pear crop opens opportunities for alternative suppliers
Canada is expected to increase imports of apples and table grapes in 2026/27 as domestic production remains insufficient to meet demand, while a smaller US pear crop is forecast to reduce Canadian pear imports and create opportunities for alternative suppliers, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
In a report published on 4 November, FAS forecast Canadian apple production at 340,000 tonnes in 2026/27, marginally below the previous season’s 340,620 tonnes. Imports are projected to rise 2 per cent to 200,000 tonnes, while exports are forecast at 40,000 tonnes.
The agency said lower domestic availability meant imports would be required to support Canadian demand. The US accounted for 83.8 per cent of apple imports in 2025/26, supplying 163,738 tonnes, but FAS said a smaller US crop and demand among Canadian consumers for non-US products would encourage retailers to diversify sourcing.
New Zealand is expected to make further gains after increasing its share of Canadian apple imports to 5.5 per cent in 2025/26. FAS also noted that Canada granted market access to Ukrainian apples in March 2025, while changes agreed in September 2025 removed fumigation or cold-treatment requirements for eligible Australian apples. A smaller EU crop, however, is expected to restrict European shipments to Canada.
Potential export recovery
On exports, FAS forecast a 2 per cent recovery after Canadian apple shipments fell to a five-year low of 39,082 tonnes in 2025/26. A smaller US crop could support demand for Canadian fruit, while a newly agreed protocol providing Mexican market access for apples from Eastern Canada could create another opportunity. The US is nevertheless expected to account for more than half of Canadian apple exports.
Meanwhile, the trend for pears is expected to move in the opposite direction. FAS forecasts Canadian production at 9,500 tonnes and imports at 53,000 tonnes in 2026/27, down 4 per cent as a recovering Ontario crop coincides with significantly lower US production. The vast majority of fresh pears consumed in Canada is normally imported.
The US supplied 25,756 tonnes of pears to Canada in 2025/26, equivalent to 46.8 per cent of imports and ahead of China on 20.6 per cent, Argentina on 17 per cent, and South Africa on 9.6 per cent.
According to FAS, retailers were likely to seek additional fruit from China, South Africa and South America in 2026/27, while higher EU production could also support increased European shipments.
Grape market still import-driven
Canadian table grape production, meanwhile, is forecast to increase from 2,341 tonnes to 2,500 tonnes, driven by gains in Ontario. However, domestic output remains tiny compared with consumption, with imports typically supplying all but 2 per cent of the Canadian market. FAS forecasts imports will rise 1 per cent to 195,000 tonnes in 2026/27.
The US remained Canada’s largest individual table grape supplier in 2025/26, although shipments fell to 76,783 tonnes and its market share slipped to 39.5 per cent. Peru supplied 40,681 tonnes, Chile 32,646 tonnes, and Mexico 22,259 tonnes.
FAS said greater US availability could make American grapes more attractive in 2026/27, although retailers seeking non-US product were expected to explore increased sourcing from South Africa and South America.
Domestic Canadian table grape production is currently sold entirely on the home market, according to sources cited by FAS, with recorded Canadian exports consisting of imported grapes that are subsequently re-exported.
