USDA forecasts increase to global orange and mandarin volumes 

GEN Satsumas

USDA forecast global citrus including orange and mandarin production will increase in the 2023/24

The latest USDA report on global citrus has forecast both orange and mandarin production will increase in the 2023/24 season (12 months to 30 June 2024 for the Northern Hemisphere and 31 December 2024 for the Southern Hemisphere). This is anticipated due to favourable weather in Turkey increasing yield and offsetting dips in production supply elsewhere.  


According to the report, global orange production is forecast up slightly to 48.8m tonnes with lower production in Brazil and the European Union (EU) offset by larger crops in Argentina, the US and Turkey.  

Brazil production is anticipated to decrease by 173,000 tonnes to 16.5m due to unfavourable weather during the second bloom, resulting in a reduced fruit set.  

EU production is also expected to decline with the USDA projecting volumes of 5.5 m tonnes due to dry and unusually warm summer conditions.  

In contrast, US production is forecast up by 280,000 tonnes to 2.5m tonnes rebounding from losses due to Hurricane Ian the year before. 

Favourable weather in Turkey is also expected to increase production by nearly one-third to 1.7m tonnes. While China production is projected up slightly to a record 7.6m tonnes due to favourable weather and increased bearing trees in Jiangxi province. 


The USDA report predicted global production of mandarins will rise by three per cent to 38m tonnes in the 2023/24 season largely due to favourable weather in China and Turkey.   

A larger crop in the Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi, and Jiangxi provinces will also contribute to the anticipated increase in volumes from China which the USDA said will reach 26.9m tonnes.  

Following a freeze the year before, Turkey’s production of mandarins is expected to rebound 42 per cent to 2.6m tonnes this season.  

Conversely, bad weather across the US, Peru and Spain is forecast to contribute to lower yields.  

While it is expected Greece will see higher production volumes, it won’t be enough to offset lower production in Spain and, overall, EU production is forecast down 5 per cent to 2.7m tonnes. 

US production is also forecast down 7 per cent to 822,000 tonnes from lower yields in California. While Peru’s production will likely be impacted by weather associated with El Nino and is predicted to be down 1 per cent to 545,000 tonnes.  

Grapefruit, lemons and limes  

The USDA also forecast global production increases to grapefruit, lemon and lime yields in 2023/24. 

Global production for grapefruit is estimated up slightly to 6.9m tonnes as a slight increase in China more than offsets lower production in South Africa. While lemons and limes are expected to increase by 225,000 tonnes to 10m tonnes as higher production in the EU, South Africa, and Turkey more than offsets lower production in Mexico and the US.