Shifting production maps offer potential to well-prepared growers, according to two new reports by RaboResearch
As one of the hottest summers on record draws to a close, new research RaboResearch shows that Europe’s fruit sector is adapting to a changing climate. However, the response to climate pressures varies across growers, regions and production systems.
While established production regions remain central, shifting temperatures, water availability, and seasonal patterns are changing how and where different crops perform best, the report notes.
According to its authors, Camilla Bonilla, RaboResearch’s senior specialist F&A climate and environmental risk and Cindy van Rijswick, global head of crops, climate change is increasing volatility across European fruit production, but rather than threatening overall supply, it is making yields, quality, and harvest timing less predictable.
The main risks vary by crop and region. Citrus is most exposed to heat and water scarcity. Pome fruit, meanwhile, remains sensitive to false springs and late frosts, while heatwaves are becoming an increasingly important risk for fruit size and quality. Stonefruit is particularly exposed to declining winter chill, which can disrupt flowering and fruit set.
“Producers with reliable access to water, capital, knowledge, and technology are better positioned to manage climate pressures than those operating under more constrained conditions,” the report says.
“As adaptation becomes more capital- and knowledge-intensive, well-invested growers may strengthen their position, while smaller, older, or less profitable farms face increasing pressure to consolidate, switch crops, or exit production. Scale alone will not be enough for growers to remain competitive. Advantages will increasingly depend on technical capabilities and investments that support resilient production.”
One of the winners in this new scenario is tropical fruit. In a separate report, RaboResearch argues that as consumption of higher-value crops like avocados and mangoes continues to grow, parts of southern Europe – particularly in regions along the Mediterranean and the Atlantic – could be well placed to meet this new demand.
“Our 2050 climate suitability outlook points to stronger potential around current production areas and in parts of southern Italy, Greece, and the eastern Mediterranean, but the opportunity remains selective rather than broad-based,” the report states.
“Commercial success will depend on more than climate. To convert climate suitability into viable tropical fruit production, regions will need access to water, ample land, capital, and skilled labour. They will also require technical support, post-harvest infrastructure, marketing capabilities, and the capacity to manage weather extremes.”
RaboResearch points out that while European production is unlikely to replace tropical fruit imports, importers could complement imports with local, higher-value supply that competes on freshness, quality, traceability, sustainability attributes, and premium or differentiated market positioning.
Overall, RaboResearch summarises the opportunity presented by climate change as “real but selective”, arguing that “it will emerge only where improving climate suitability overlaps with reliable water access, scalable production, technical capability, infrastructure, and premium market access”.
To view the reports click here:
Climate adaptation is becoming the new edge in Europe’s fruit sector
Climate change and market dynamics increase opportunities for tropical fruit production in Europe
