Overall grocery price inflation rises to 2.3 per cent, as lunchbox staples increase and brands outpace own-label
Take-home grocery sales increased by 2 per cent year on year in the four weeks to 6 September 2026, according to new data released today from Worldpanel by Numerator.
In the same period, like-for-like grocery price inflation rose to 2.3 per cent, rising at a faster rate than last month, which was reported at 2.1 per cent, its lowest level since October 2024.
According to the Food and Drink Federation’s latest forecast, food price inflation is likely to climb to nearly 4 per cent by the end of the year, exceeding 6 per cent by mid-2027 due to the ongoing impact of the US-Iran war, European drought and the El Nino weather phenomenon.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel by Numerator, said: ”While grocery inflation ticked up modestly last month, it remains significantly lower than the levels we saw earlier in the year, giving households some welcome breathing room.”
Shopping habits have also shifted amid the return to school and work, with Brits making 18 million fewer trips to the grocers in August, compared to a peak of 497 million in July.
“The end of the summer holidays typically brings a cooling in trip frequency and a pivot towards priority purchases, and this year is no exception,” McKevitt added.
The sale of lunchbox staples also surged, with the number buying satsumas (+29 per cent) and cucumbers (+21 per cent) rising in the final week before term time.
For only the second time this past year, branded goods outpaced own-label with sales up 3.7 per cent compared to 2.9 per cent growth for own-label. This is a reversal of a pattern that has defined much of 2026, Worldpanel stated.
Moreover, for the first time since March 2024, Asda saw a return to growth, with sales rising by 0.1 per cent over the 12 weeks to 6 September, although the Leeds-based retailer’s market share dipped to 11.5 per cent.
While online supermarket Ocado remained the fastest-growing grocer overall with a market share of 2.2 per cent, Lidl moved up to 8.7 per cent of the market, helped especially by strong performance over fresh produce, confectionery and soft drinks.
Tesco saw sales rise by 1.7 per cent, with the UK’s largest supermarket now holding 27.8 per cent of the market.
