FAS forecasts second-smallest EU apple crop in a decade, while pear and table grape production are expected to increase
European Union apple imports are forecast to rise by around 15 per cent in 2026/27 after drought, heat, and other adverse weather reduced commercial production to its second-lowest level in a decade, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
In its Fresh Deciduous Fruit Annual report for the EU, published this week, FAS forecast commercial apple production at 9.83mn tonnes, down 13.5 per cent from 11.37mn tonnes in 2025/26. The decline was attributed mainly to spring drought and repeated periods of heat, with particularly significant effects in Poland, France, Germany and Central Europe.
Poland, the EU’s largest producer, is forecast to harvest 2.9mn tonnes, down 24 per cent. Meanwhile, output is expected to fall 14 per cent to 1.38mn tonnes in France and 22 per cent to 890,600 tonnes in Germany.
Italy’s production is forecast 2 per cent lower at 2.27mn tonnes. Spain’s production, in contrast, is projected to rise 12 per cent to 525,000 tonnes.
Lower EU availability is expected to mean apple imports will be up from 231,911 tonnes in 2025/26 to 265,700 tonnes this season, the FAS said. It forecast notable increases for the Netherlands, France, Bulgaria, Germany, Spain, and Sweden.
Southern Hemisphere origins supplied 62 per cent of EU apple imports last season, led by Chile, South Africa and New Zealand, while Moldova has increased its presence substantially since the EU suspended import duties on certain Moldovan goods in 2022.
Anticipated export decline
EU apple exports, meanwhile, are forecast to fall from 1.17mn tonnes to 970,200 tonnes as reduced production limits availability and Turkey is expected to provide greater competition following its smaller 2025/26 crop.
Egypt overtook the UK as the EU’s largest apple export market last season, taking 190,472 tonnes, while shipments to India jumped 85 per cent to 95,784 tonnes and those to Saudi Arabia increased 34 per cent to 97,702 tonnes.
The FAS noted that EU exporters compete with US suppliers in markets including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and India. US apple shipments to the EU itself remain negligible, however, following technical issues linked to the use of morpholine in waxes and diphenylamine as a post-harvest treatment.
Positive pear prediction
The outlook for EU pears is more positive on production, with FAS expecting an increase of almost 2 per cent in the commercial crop to 1.88mn tonnes. The Netherlands is expected to see its output rise 7 per cent to 383,000 tonnes and Italy should have 17 per cent more at 347,000 tonnes, it said, but Belgian production is forecast to decline 7 per cent to 364,000 tonnes.
Together, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy and Spain are expected to account for more than 70 per cent of EU commercial pear production.
Higher domestic availability is forecast to push pear imports down further from the 152,706 tonnes recorded in 2025/26. South Africa was the largest supplier last season with 66,760 tonnes and a 44 per cent market share, followed by Chile with 37,153 tonnes, Argentina with 26,168 tonnes and China with 14,256 tonnes.
The Netherlands and Italy together accounted for three-quarters of EU pear imports, although much of the fruit entering the Netherlands was subsequently distributed to other member states.
Pear exports are forecast to remain broadly stable at 334,000 tonnes in 2026/27. FAS said reduced export availability in Belgium and Poland should be offset by larger volumes from the Netherlands and Portugal.
The UK is expected to remain the EU’s leading pear export market, with shipments having settled at around 81,000 tonnes in each of the past three seasons, while countries in central Asia remain important destinations for Belgian and Dutch Conference pears.
EU grape imports limited
EU table grape production is also forecast to increase, rising 4 per cent to 1.59mn tonnes, led by a larger Italian crop as new productive seedless vineyards come into production. Output is also expected to increase in Spain, Greece, Romania, Portugal and Bulgaria, while France is forecast to produce less because of prolonged drought and heat stress.
The larger European crop is expected to reduce table grape imports to 670,000 tonnes from 694,142 tonnes in 2025/26. The EU remains a net importer, however, with third-country supply particularly important outside the main European production season. South Africa was the leading external supplier in 2025/26 with 219,132 tonnes, equivalent to 32 per cent of imports, followed by Peru with 128,917 tonnes, Chile with 76,751 tonnes and Egypt with 73,682 tonnes.
EU table grape exports are forecast to edge up to 166,000 tonnes. The UK accounted for 51 per cent of exports in 2025/26, receiving 83,930 tonnes, followed by Switzerland with 27,537 tonnes and Norway with 15,909 tonnes. FAS said exports to the US remained marginal, while US table grape shipments to the EU were rare.
FAS said producers across the three fruit categories continued to face challenges from more variable weather, labour shortages and rising labour costs, restrictions on plant-protection products and difficulties finding successors for farms.
It also reported that attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea had increased risks and logistics costs for EU fruit exports to Asia, potentially encouraging some exporters to seek alternative markets.
